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Global Economic Prospects

Why the global economy could be turning a significant corner, in six charts

Ayhan Kose's picture

2018 will likely mark a turning point for the global economy. For the first time since 2008, the negative global output gap – defined as the difference between the levels of actual output and output if operating at full capacity – is expected to close. As the output gap closes in advanced economies, central banks are likely to normalize monetary policy after a decade of exceptional easing. With this anticipated withdrawal of stimulus by advanced economies, emerging market and developing economy policymakers need to remain alert to the potential for adverse spillovers.

Output gaps are closing

In 2018, for the first time since 2008, the negative global output gap is expected to be closed.

Global output gap
Source: World Bank staff estimates.
Notes: Output gaps calculated using multivariate filter. Global, regional, and group output gaps are calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP as weights. The sample includes 15 advanced economies (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States) and 23 EMDEs (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam). 2018 GDP is forecast. Dashed lines are 95 percent confidence interval bounds computed from the Kalman smoother state variances. Global lower and upper bounds are obtained as GDP-weighted averages of individual country lower and upper bounds.

Building solid foundations: How to promote potential growth, in six charts

Franziska Ohnsorge's picture

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Despite an acceleration of global economic activity, potential output growth (the growth that can be sustained at full employment and capacity) has slowed. The slowdown reflected weak investment growth, slowing productivity growth, and demographic trends. These forces will continue, and, unless countered, will depress global potential growth further over the next ten years. 

Global Potential Growth Is Below its Long-term Average. Global potential growth slowed in 2013-17 below its longer-term average, whether globally, among advanced economies (AEs) or among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
Sources: World Bank estimates; Haver Analytics; Penn World Tables; World Development Indicators, World Bank. 
Notes: A.  Based on production function approach, GDP-weighted averages for a sample of 30 advanced economies and 50 EMDEs. 

Why 2018 global growth will be strong, and why there is still cause for concern, in 10 charts

Carlos Arteta's picture
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Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth accelerated to 3 percent in 2017, supported by a broad-based cyclical recovery encompassing more than half of the world’s economies, and is expected to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018. Global trade regained significant momentum, supported by an upturn in investment.

As headwinds ease for commodity exporters, growth across emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up. However, risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside, such as the possibility of disorderly financial market adjustment or rising geopolitical tensions.

A major concern in the subdued pace of potential growth across emerging market and developing economies, which is expected to further decline in the next decade. Structural reforms will be essential to stem this decline, and counter the negative effects of any future crisis that could materialize.

The broad-based recovery should continue

Global growth accelerated markedly in 2017, supported by a broad-based recovery across advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and it is expected to edge up in 2018.
 
Growth

Global Economic Prospects January 2016: Regional integration and spillovers

Derek H. C. Chen's picture
A key risk to global growth in 2016 is that a number of emerging markets slow simultaneously. Following a decade of deepening integration among emerging markets and developing countries, weakness in a few major emerging markets could spread to set back activity across the emerging market and developing country world. The January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report examines regional integration and the possibility of spillovers from growth shocks at the global and regional level.

Global economic prospects: sluggish emerging market activity to weigh on global growth in 2016

Carlos Arteta's picture

Global economic growth is projected to pick up modestly in 2016 to 2.9 percent after a disappointing 2015, the January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report says.  Growth slowed last year to a 2.4 percent rate, 0.4 percentage points below earlier projections, amid falling commodity prices and weak flows of trade and capital.

Growth is expected to edge up this year as advanced economies grow more solidly, commodity prices stabilize, China continues to gradually rebalance its economy and global financial conditions remain benign despite rising United States interest rates.  Even so, the forecast is lower than projections of six months ago, principally due to the simultaneous slowdown in major emerging market economies.
 

Save first, then spend: history’s lessons on the influence of low oil prices on global growth

Marc Stocker's picture
The impact of falling oil prices is becoming increasingly visible, but the global economy is yet to hit a nice stride - oil exporters face severe headwinds, oil-importing China continues to slow, other large oil-importing countries have seen mixed developments since the start of 2015, and financial market volatility has increased.

World Economy in 2014: Troubling Stagnant Growth

Jim Yong Kim's picture
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A major World Bank Group report this week found that growth is stagnating in developing countries. It’s projected to be below 5 percent for the third straight year. That’s too modest to create the kind of jobs we need to improve the lives of the poorest people around the world.

If this trend continues, it will have long-term negative implications on developing countries, including the loss of an historic opportunity to end extreme poverty in the next generation. Millions of people around the world have been able to escape poverty over the last few decades largely because of high economic growth in developing countries.


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