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What triggered the oil price plunge of 2014-2016 and why it failed to deliver an economic impetus in eight charts

Marc Stocker's picture
Also available in: Español

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

The 2014-16 collapse in oil prices was driven by a growing supply glut, but failed to deliver the boost to global growth that many had expected. In the event, the benefits of substantially lower oil prices were muted by the low responsiveness of economic activity in key oil-importing emerging markets, the effects on U.S. activity of a sharp contraction in energy investment and an abrupt slowdown in key oil exporters. 

Biggest drop in oil prices in modern history

Between mid-2014 and early 2016, the global economy faced one of the largest oil price declines in modern history. The 70 percent price drop during that period was one of the three biggest declines since World War II, and the longest lasting since the supply-driven collapse of 1986.

Real oil prices
Source: World Bank.
Notes: Real oil prices are calculated as the nominal price deflated by the international manufacturers unit value index, in which 100=2010. World Bank crude oil average. Last observation is November 2017.

Colombia: the roads more traveled

Philippe Neves's picture

Also available in Español​


Photo: Dominic Chavez / International Finance Corporation

In the early 1990s, Colombia’s road infrastructure was a maze of poorly maintained roads and bad highways. Difficult geography—the Pacific coast jungle and the Andes branching out into three chains—made it harder to improve road conditions and connect isolated communities. Conflict, corruption, and short-term political priorities contributed to the problems plaguing Colombia’s road system. But just as influential were the problems with the nation’s existing concession contracts that had wrong incentives, created opportunities for renegotiating signed contracts, and assigned unproportioned demand risk to the Government of Colombia.

Transforming Transportation 2018: To Craft a Digital Future for All, We Need Transport for All

Jose Luis Irigoyen's picture



Exponential progress in how we collect, process and use data is fundamentally changing our societies and economies. But the new digital economy depends fundamentally on a very physical enabler. Amazon and Alibaba would not exist without efficient ways to deliver products worldwide, be it by road or ship or drone. The job you applied for through Skype may require travel to London or Dubai, where you’ll expect to get around easily.

In fact, as the backbone of globalization, digitization is increasing the need to move people and goods around the planet. Mounting pressure on transportation as economies grow is leading to unsustainable environmental and safety trends. Transport needs are increasingly being met at the cost of future generations.

Can the digital revolution, which depends so much on efficient global and local mobility, also help us rethink transportation itself? To be a part of the solution to issues such as climate change, poverty, health, public safety, and the empowerment of women, the answer must be yes. Transport must go beyond being an enabler of the digital economy to itself harnessing the power of technology.

Why 2018 global growth will be strong, and why there is still cause for concern, in 10 charts

Carlos Arteta's picture
Also available in: Español |  Français | 中文 |  العربية 

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth accelerated to 3 percent in 2017, supported by a broad-based cyclical recovery encompassing more than half of the world’s economies, and is expected to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018. Global trade regained significant momentum, supported by an upturn in investment.

As headwinds ease for commodity exporters, growth across emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up. However, risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside, such as the possibility of disorderly financial market adjustment or rising geopolitical tensions.

A major concern in the subdued pace of potential growth across emerging market and developing economies, which is expected to further decline in the next decade. Structural reforms will be essential to stem this decline, and counter the negative effects of any future crisis that could materialize.

The broad-based recovery should continue

Global growth accelerated markedly in 2017, supported by a broad-based recovery across advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and it is expected to edge up in 2018.
 
Growth

Energy and raw materials prices gained in December, beverages and fertilizer prices fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices gained 2 percent in December—the sixth consecutive monthly gain—led by a 6 percent increase in coal prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Agriculture prices declined marginally, as a 5 percent decline in beverages, led by cocoa (down 10 percent) outweighed a 2 percent increase in raw materials prices, led by cotton (up 6 percent) and natural rubber (up 5 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 5 percent, led by a 11 percent drop in urea.

Metals and mineral prices gained less than 1 percent. A large gain in iron ore (up 12 percent) was offset by declines in zinc and nickel. Precious metals prices declined 2 percent, led by a 1 percent decline in gold.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
 
Energy and raw material price indexes increased in December while beverage and fertilizer prices declined sharply.

 

Going Deeper into TCdata360 Data Availability Leaders and Laggers

Reg Onglao's picture

Note: This is the second blog of a series of blog posts on data availability within the context of TCdata360, wherein each post will focus on a different aspect of data availability. The first blog post can be viewed here.

With open data comes missing data. In this blog series, we hope to explore data availability by looking at it from various perspectives within the context of the TCdata360 platform[1]: by country, dataset, topic, and indicator.

In our previous blog post, we took a look at the country-level data availability over time through an interactive motion bubble plot inspired by the famous Gapminder visualization. In this follow-up post, we’ll still look at data availability from a geographical lens – but now looking into country classifications and other details that aren’t evident in a bubble plot, as well as the data availability leaders and laggers over time.

Overall Data Availability Leaders and Laggers

First, let’s focus on comparing individual countries to get a better sense of country-level differences in data availability. We computed for each country’s overall data availability by taking the median data availability across all years (1955-2016). Looking at the top 20 and bottom 20 countries in terms of overall data availability generates a few interesting patterns.

Improved Trade Policies Can Expand Exports and Drive Growth in Nepal

Gonzalo Varela's picture
Pashminas – scarves and shawls in bright colors made from the wool of Himalayan goats – are one of Nepal’s most well-known exports. In 2016, the country exported over $25 million worth of these products, comprising 3.6% of the country’s total exports. Although the products are popular on international markets, exporters face many challenges in getting their products to customers.

Three reasons why maritime transport must act on climate change

Nancy Vandycke's picture


For years, the transport sector has been looking at solutions to reduce its carbon footprint. A wide range of stakeholders has taken part in the public debate on transport and climate change, yet one mode has remained largely absent from the conversation: maritime transport.

Tackling emissions from the shipping industry is just as critical as it is for other modes of transport. First, international maritime transport accounts for the lion’s share of global freight transport: ships carry around 80% of the volume of all world trade and 70% of its value. In addition, although shipping is considered the most energy-efficient mode of transport, it still uses huge amounts of so-called bunker fuels, a byproduct of crude oil refining that takes a heavy toll on the environment.

Several key global players are now calling on the maritime sector to challenge the status quo and limit its climate impact. From our perspective, we see at least three major reasons that can explain why emissions from maritime transport are becoming a global priority.

Watch the Growth of Trade country-level data availability in TCdata360

Reg Onglao's picture

Note: This is the first blog of a series of blog posts on data availability within the context of TCdata360, wherein each post will focus on a different aspect of data availability.

With open data comes missing data. We know that all indicators are not created equal and some are better covered than others. Ditto for countries in which coverage can range from near universal such as the United States of America to very sparse indeed such as Saint Martin (French part).

TCdata360 is no exception. While our data spans across over 200 countries and 2000+ indicators, our data suffers from some of the same gaps as many other datasets do: uneven coverage and quality. With that basic fact in mind, we have set about exploring what our data gaps tell us — we have 'data-fied' our data gaps so to speak.

In the next few blogs we'll explore our data gaps to identify any patterns we can find within the context of the TCdata360 platform[1] — which countries and regions throw up surprises, which topics are better covered than others, which datasets and indicators grow more 'fashionable' when, and the like. In this first blog, we’ll look at data availability at the country level.

Energy prices surged in November, beverages and fertilizer prices fell–Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Also available in: Español | Français

Energy commodity prices surged 8 percent in November—the fifth consecutive monthly gain—led by a 9 percent increase in oil prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Agriculture prices made marginal gains as a 1 percent decline in beverages was balanced by a 1 percent increase in food prices, notably natural rubber (down 12 percent) and cotton (off 2 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 3 percent, led by a 6 percent drop in Urea.

Metals and mineral prices were unchanged. Gains in nickel and iron ore were balanced by declines in lead and aluminum. Precious metals prices rose marginally.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.


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