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Trade

Didn’t make it to our trade research conference? Here’s what you missed

Ana Fernandes's picture

What would bring together the China trade shock, road blocks in the West Bank, and the Belt and Road initiative? The 6th Annual IMF-World Bank-WTO Trade Research Conference, at which staff of the three institutions presented the results of twelve research projects. 
 
The Conference is over, but the website lives on, and here you can find preliminary versions of papers. To whet your appetite, here are three examples of research that use creative methodologies and raise provocative questions.

The innovation imperative: How Asia can leverage exponential technologies to improve lives and promote growth

Amira Karim's picture


The global economy, climate change, infrastructure, the food system – these are just a few of the hot topics that will be addressed in Lima, Peru, in the lead-up to the Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund the week of Oct. 5. 

The annual gathering of ministers from 188 countries takes place just two weeks after a historic vote at the United Nations to adopt Sustainable Development Goals. Government ministers will again discuss the SDGs at the Oct. 11 meeting of the Development Committee of the World Bank Group and IMF.

Tracing the roots of TCdata360 datasets: an interactive network graph

Reg Onglao's picture


La economía mundial está saliendo finalmente de la crisis financiera. A nivel mundial, el crecimiento estimado fue de 2,4 % en 2013, y se espera que aumente a 3,2 % este año. Esto se debe en gran parte a un mejor desempeño de los países de ingreso alto. Se pronostica que las economías avanzadas registren un crecimiento récord de 1,3 % en el año que acaba de terminar, y que luego aumente a 2,2 % en 2014. Mientras tanto, es probable que los países en desarrollo crezcan 5,3 % este año, lo que representa un incremento del crecimiento estimado de 4,8 % en 2013.

La economía mundial puede ser vista como un avión bimotor que voló por cerca de seis años con un solo motor: el mundo en desarrollo. Finalmente, el otro motor –los países de ingreso alto– que estaba detenido se puso en marcha. Este cambio, que se detalla en el informe Perspectivas económicas mundiales 2014  del Banco Mundial, dado a conocer el martes pasado, significa que las naciones en desarrollo ya no son el impulsor principal de la economía mundial. Si bien es posible que hayan terminado los días de auge de mediados de la década de 2000, el crecimiento en el mundo emergente se mantiene muy por encima de los promedios históricos.
 
Los países de ingreso alto siguen enfrentando importantes desafíos, pero el panorama ha mejorado. Varias economías avanzadas aún tienen grandes déficits, pero algunas de ellas han adoptado estrategias a largo plazo para poder controlarlos sin impedir el crecimiento.

También hay un optimismo cauteloso en torno a la zona del euro, donde el crecimiento se recuperó a mediados de 2013, y probablemente se expanda un 1,1 % en 2014 tras dos años de recesión. Teniendo en cuenta las dificultades de Europa en los últimos seis años, incluso un crecimiento modesto transmite un mensaje de esperanza. En Estados Unidos, a pesar de un informe decepcionante sobre el empleo en diciembre, la gran mayoría de los datos económicos parecen sólidos, y esperamos que el crecimiento aumente de 1,8 % en 2013 a 2,8 % este año.

Resilient transport investments: a climate imperative for Small Island Developing Countries

Franz Drees-Gross's picture
This blog post was co-authored by Franz Drees-Gross, Director, Transport and ICT Global Practice, and Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez, Senior Director, Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice.



Transport in its many forms – from tuk-tuks in Thailand to futuristic self-driving electric cars – is ubiquitous in the lives of everyone on the planet. For that reason, it is often taken for granted – unless we are caught in congestion, or more dramatically, if the water truck fails to arrive at a drought-stricken community in Africa.

It is easy to forget that transport is a crucial part of the global economy. Overall, countries invest between $1.4 to $2.1 trillion per year in transport infrastructure to meet the world’s demand for mobility and connectivity. Efficient transport systems move goods and services, connect people to economic opportunities, and enable access to essential services like healthcare and education. Transport is a fundamental enabler to achieving almost all the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and is crucial to meet the objectives under the Paris agreement of limiting global warming to less than 2°C by 2100, and make best efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

But all of this depends on well-functioning transport systems. With the effects of climate change, in many countries this assumption is becoming less of a given. The impact of extreme natural events on transport—itself a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions—often serve as an abrupt reminder of how central it is, both for urgent response needs such as evacuating people and getting emergency services where they are needed, but also for longer term economic recovery, often impaired by destroyed infrastructure and lost livelihoods. A country that loses its transport infrastructure cannot respond effectively to climate change impacts.

From potato eaters to world leaders in agriculture

Priti Kumar's picture
There isn’t much cost analysis in impact evaluations. In McEwan’s review of 77 randomized experiments in education, he found that “56% of treatments reported no details on incremental costs, while most of the rest reported minimal details.”

Interactive product export streamgraphs with data360r (now in CRAN!)

Reg Onglao's picture

Building beautiful, interactive charts is becoming easier nowadays in R, especially with open source packages such as plot.ly, ggplot2 and leaflet. But behind the scenes, there is an often untold, gruesome part of creating data visualizations -- downloading, cleaning, and processing data into the correct format.

Making data access and download easier is one of the reasons we developed data360r, recently available on CRAN and the newest addition to the TCdata360 Data Science Corner.

Data360r is a nifty R wrapper for the TCdata360 API, where R users ranging from beginners to experts can easily download trade and competitiveness data, metadata, and resources found in TCdata360 using single-line R functions.

In an earlier blog, we outlined some benefits of using data360r. In this blog, we’ll show you how to make an interactive streamgraph using the data360r and streamgraph packages in just a few lines of code! For more usecases and tips, go to https://tcdata360.worldbank.org/tools/data360r.

Where commodity prices are going, explained in nine charts

John Baffes's picture
The most recent World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts commodities prices to level off next year after big gains for industrial commodities—energy and metals—in 2017. Commodity prices appear to be stabilizing after a boom that peaked in 2011, albeit at a higher average level than pre-boom.
 
Chart 1

Energy and fertilizer prices rose in October, raw materials and precious metals fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices increased more than 3 percent in October, a fourth consecutive monthly gain, led by a strengthening in oil, according to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet.

Agriculture prices edged lower in the month, as raw materials declined, notably natural rubber, which tumbled 12 percent. Food and beverage prices changed little. Fertilizer prices climbed over 5 percent, helped by a 12 percent jump in urea.

The Legacy of Saman Kelegama

Sanjay Kathuria's picture
Saman Kelegama, a Sri Lankan economist and the Executive Director of the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS Sri Lanka) died prematurely in June 2017. He was a champion of deeper South Asian cooperation.
Saman Kelegama, a Sri Lankan economist and the Executive Director of the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS Sri Lanka) died prematurely in June 2017. He was a champion of deeper South Asian cooperation. Credit:  Institute of Policy Studies

I first met Saman in the early 1990s in Delhi.  Over the years, our paths diverged.  When I re-engaged on South Asia, I ran into Saman again. We re-connected instantly, despite the long intervening period.  This was easy to do with Saman—soft-spoken, affable, a gentleman to the core.  He bore his considerable knowledge lightly.  

Despite his premature passing away in June 2017, he left a rich and varied legacy behind him. I will confine myself to discussing his insights on regional cooperation in South Asia, based on his public writings and my interactions with him.

Saman was a champion of deeper economic linkages within South Asia. He was also pragmatic. 

Along with a few other regional champions, Saman, as the head of the Institute of Policy Studies in Colombo, helped to kick-start the “South Asian Economic Summit”, or SAES, in Colombo in 2008, to provide a high-profile forum for dialogue on topical issues, especially South Asian regional integration. It is remarkable that the SAES has endured, without any gap. The fact that the policy and academic fraternity meet with unfailing regularity, despite on-and-off political tensions in the region, is testimony to its value.

Saman repeatedly stressed that Sri Lanka has been able to reap benefits from the India-Sri Lanka FTA (ISFTA), contrary to the general belief. His arguments were powerful: the import-export ratio for Sri Lanka improved from 10.3 in 2000 (the start of the ISFTA) to 6.6 in 2015; about 70 percent of Sri Lanka’s exports to India get duty-free access under the FTA, but less than 10 percent of Sri Lanka’s imports from India come under the FTA (since India provided “special and differential treatment” to Sri Lanka).

Sustainable mobility: Who's who and who does what?

Shokraneh Minovi's picture
doomed by fate ... or is there another way forward?
doomed by fate ... or is there another way forward?
Opinions and approaches vary regarding how to ‘best’ utilize new technologies to support teaching and learning in ways that are engaging, impactful and ‘effective’.

A recent paper from J-PAL (Education Technology: An Evidence-Based Review) finds that rigorous evidence about what works, and what doesn’t, in this area is decidedly mixed. While what works seems to be a result of many factors (what, where, when, by whom, for whom, why, how), what doesn’t work is pretty clear: simply buying lots of equipment and connecting lots of schools.
 
Why does this continue to happen, then?


Many in the ‘edtech community’ feel that policymakers simply don’t understand that buying lots of equipment won’t actually change much (aside from its impact on the national treasury), and that if they did understand this, they’d do things differently.

In my experience, the reason that many places end up just buying lots of equipment, dumping it into schools and hoping for magic to happen (a widely acknowledged and long-standing ‘worst practice’ when it comes to technology use in education) isn’t necessarily that the people making related decisions are dumb or uninformed or corrupt (although of course those scenarios shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand in some places).


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