Photo: VahanN / Shutterstock.com
Downtown Yerevan. Gusty winds, frosty air. Inside a hotel in the town square, cocktails and canapés, speeches and signatures. On this evening in November 2016, representatives of the State Committee for Water Economy (the Armenian water authority) and Veolia (a large international water operator) gathered to celebrate the signing of a new partnership: a 15-year national lease to provide water and wastewater services for the whole country. The lease began in January 2017, thus marking the start of a “second generation” of water PPPs in Armenia. Solid gains had already been made under the “first generation” between 2000 and 2016. At this crucial juncture, a World Bank study reviewed Armenia’s experience so far and analyzed the way forward under the new national lease.
Photo: Artit Wongpradu / Shutterstock.com
Islamic finance has been growing rapidly across the globe. According to a recent report by the Islamic Financial Services Board, the Islamic finance market currently stands around $1.9 trillion. With this growth, its application has been extended into many areas — trade, real estate, manufacturing, banking, infrastructure, and more.
However, Islamic finance is still a relatively untapped market for public-private partnership (PPP) financing, which makes the recent publication Mobilizing Islamic Finance for Infrastructure Public-Private Partnerships such an important resource, especially for governments and practitioners.
Many countries are experiencing urbanization within the context of increased decentralization and fiscal adjustment. This puts sub-national entities (local governments, utilities and state-owned enterprises) in the position of being increasingly responsible for developing and financing infrastructure and providing services to meet the needs of growing populations.
However, decentralization in many situations is still a work in progress. And often there is a mismatch between the ability of sub-nationals to provide services, and the autonomy or authority necessary to make decisions and access financing—often leaving them dependent on national governments. Additionally, they may also contend with inadequate regulatory and policy frameworks and weak domestic financial and capital markets.
- sustainable cities
- municipal governance
- infrastructure financing
- Public private partnership
- Public Private Partnerships
- Urban Development
- Public Sector and Governance
- Private Sector Development
- Europe and Central Asia
- Latin America & Caribbean
What are the key considerations for a public authority when drafting a Force Majeure provision in a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) contract? What are the differences between emerging and developed PPP markets in treating Change in Law clauses? And are there particular legal matters that need to be contemplated in a civil law jurisdiction rather than in a common law country when dealing with termination payments under a PPP agreement?
These are only some of the questions the World Bank Group’s recently-published Guidance on PPP Contractual Provisions, 2017 edition aims to address for the benefit of public authorities (contracting authorities) involved in PPPs. This blog is the first in a series of posts that will discuss and explore the issues covered in the 2017 Guidance.
Photo: Munish Chandel | Flickr Creative Commons
This is the final blog in a three-part series on traffic risk in PPPs
As explained in the previous two blogs – Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting and Traffic Risk in PPPs, Part II: Bias in Traffic Forecasts – traffic risk is inevitable, given our imperfect ability to predict traffic and revenue a long way (often several decades) into the future. And what makes it harder is that there are often biases at play in the typical project environment, which can cause a skewness towards over-estimation rather under-estimation of traffic flows. This, of course, can then result in financial losses and distress for the project, as manifested in a number of high profile bankruptcies, renegotiations and bailouts in the toll road sector.
In the new PPIAF and GIF publication, Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk, we outline various ways in which governments, bidders and financiers can take important steps to reduce the amount of traffic risk in projects. But we also acknowledge that the use of, for example, industry-standard forecasting techniques, better due diligence and a more stable policy environment will only go so far in reducing traffic risk. The reality is that there will always be some risk in any project, regardless of the best endeavors taken by the project parties. So, the key question is, what should we do with traffic risk and who should be responsible for bearing that risk?
As infrastructure projects are increasingly decentralized to sub-national governments (SNGs) in many countries, policymakers are keenly interested in developing sub-national bond markets to open up access to private-sector financing. However, the transaction costs of bond issuance are still prohibitive for small SNGs.
Pooled financing—through regional infrastructure funds, municipal funds, or bond banks—is being explored as a solution. Yet, many questions remain:
What is your dream?
Many people living in Peru dream of having a safe, well-built, multi-use bathroom that includes an adjacent area for a shower with a nice shower curtain and mirror and is constructed with bricks and cement, and has a wooden door and window. Sounds ordinary, right?
But for 2.4 million households in Peru this dream is out of reach because they have no access to credit lines, and the only way for them to construct an in-house bathroom would be by paying the entire construction cost upfront. This situation created an unexplored market estimated at $500 million – an amount large enough to attract private sector investors.
"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."
– “The Big Short”
Forecasting traffic accurately is a very difficult and thankless task, as I explained in my previous blog: Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting. As such, this gives rise to very real financial risks if these forecasts turn out to be wrong. This risk has crystallized many times as manifested in high-profile distressed projects, bankruptcies, renegotiations and bailouts.
So what’s driving the inaccuracy and resulting risk in traffic forecasts? In the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) and Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF) publication, Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk, we postulate that forecasting inaccuracy comes from three sources:
Photo: Jorge Franganillo | Flickr Creative Commons
This is the first of a three-part series on traffic risk in PPPs
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
– Professor Nils Bohr, Nobel Laureate
Professor Bohr was right: prediction is hard work. As a species, we don’t have difficulty making predictions. I, for one, frequently make doom-laden predictions on a diverse range of subjects ranging from politics to the fortunes of my beloved football team, Liverpool Football Club.
No, the problem is that humans, as a rule, are not very good at predictions. Sadly, that illusive ‘crystal ball’ still has not been invented. And the sheer complexity of living on an ever-changing and evolving planet alongside 7 billion equally complex individuals—all making unique but increasingly interdependent decisions—makes even the most straightforward predictions difficult.
At the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) we are always trying to improve how we help countries—especially those with the greatest needs—develop strategies to attract private sector investment in much-needed infrastructure such as transport, water/sanitation, and energy. And we aren’t afraid to assess our past work to find ways to do it.