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Traffic Risk in PPPs, Part II: Bias in traffic forecasts—dealing with the darker side of PPPs

Matt Bull's picture


Photo: Susanne Nilsson| Flickr Creative Commons

This is the second of a three-part series on traffic PPPs.

"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."
“The Big Short” 
 
Forecasting traffic accurately is a very difficult and thankless task, as I explained in my previous blog: Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting. As such, this gives rise to very real financial risks if these forecasts turn out to be wrong. This risk has crystallized many times as manifested in high-profile distressed projects, bankruptcies, renegotiations and bailouts.

So what’s driving the inaccuracy and resulting risk in traffic forecasts? In the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) and Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF) publication, Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Riskwe postulate that forecasting inaccuracy comes from three sources:

Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting — It’s ok to be wrong, just try to be less wrong

Matt Bull's picture


Photo: Jorge Franganillo | Flickr Creative Commons

This is the first of a three-part series on traffic risk in PPPs

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
– Professor Nils Bohr, Nobel Laureate

Professor Bohr was right: prediction is hard work. As a species, we don’t have difficulty making predictions. I, for one, frequently make doom-laden predictions on a diverse range of subjects ranging from politics to the fortunes of my beloved football team, Liverpool Football Club.

No, the problem is that humans, as a rule, are not very good at predictions. Sadly, that illusive ‘crystal ball’ still has not been invented. And the sheer complexity of living on an ever-changing and evolving planet alongside 7 billion equally complex individuals—all making unique but increasingly interdependent decisions—makes even the most straightforward predictions difficult. 

South Asia’s ports: Expensive and slow

Matias Herrera Dappe's picture
 
Are South Asia’s Container Ports Competitive?


Many countries, developed and developing, that want to become more competitive in global markets tend to jump to a quick conclusion that they need to invest more in infrastructure, particularly in transport sectors like ports. But while many regions, including South Asia, do face important infrastructure gaps, massive new investment is not the only way to improve regional competitiveness. Countries should realize that they also have significant potential to make more efficient use of the infrastructure they already have.
 
Building megaports all along the coast might reduce a country’s trade costs, but it also requires hundreds of millions of dollars in investment. Improving the performance of existing ports, enabling them to handle higher levels of cargo with the same facilities and in a shorter time, can be a far more cost-effective approach to reducing transport and trade costs. Closing the infrastructure gap does not just require more infrastructure, but also better infrastructure, and better use of existing infrastructure.
 
The report Competitiveness of South Asia’s Container Ports, which we launched today, provides the first comprehensive look at the 14 largest container ports in South Asia, which handle 98 percent of the region’s container traffic. It focuses on port performance, drivers, and costs. 

To Enable or Disable? That’s the Question in Transport Projects

Chris Bennett's picture
Most of us are familiar with Benjamin Franklin’s observation that “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”  For many of us, we could also add physical disability. The World Bank has estimated that about 15% of the world’s population experience some form of disability during their lifetime, and up to 190 million experience significant disability.
 
Persons with disabilities, on average as a group, are more likely to also experience adverse socioeconomic outcomes than persons without disabilities. They tend to have higher poverty rates, and be isolated from societies. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework includes seven targets which explicitly refer to persons with disabilities and six further targets on people in vulnerable situations which include persons with disabilities.
 
We in the transport sector have an important role to play in helping ensure inclusive development and mobility by removing access barriers. Recent work done in the Pacific Islands provides us with a relevant set of tools which we can be readily applied on our projects to achieve this inclusiveness.

Big Challenges, Small States: Island Nations Come Together for Climate Action

Rachel Kyte's picture

New community buildings in Samoa

On Sunday in Apia, the capital of Samoa, I saw the results of the World Bank Group’s work with coastal communities that were devastated by the 2009 tsunami and by Cyclone Evan in 2012.  Working with the Samoan government and partners, we built coastal roads and a new system of access roads that leads into the hills away from the seashore. Many families rebuilt their homes in the hills, and the new road system helps bind those new households together as well as providing safe escape routes should a tsunami or major storm hit the coast again.
 
The hard infrastructure construction is interesting; the community conversations about next steps for protecting the coastlines are even more so. The government is launching a series of community consultations that will bring together village mayors, women leaders, government agencies, and NGOs to decide how best to climate-proof their coastlines. The communities are set to decide if sea walls or mangrove plantations will best protect their land and livelihood.  

I’m in Apia with a team from across the IFC and the World Bank to represent the World Bank Group at the 3rd UN Conference for Small Island Developing States and took the opportunity to learn more about climate and disaster risk management at the community level.
 
For island nations, the small size of their land and their economies comes with a set of unique vulnerabilities that makes climate change a major determinant of their ability to thrive and in some cases even survive.

Transforming Transportation in Our Polluted, Congested Cities

Karin Rives's picture

 Kim Eun Yeul / World Bank

Cities are the world’s engines of economic growth, but they also account for 70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and many metropolitan areas struggle with traffic congestion, lost productivity, public health problems and traffic deaths due to inadequate public transportation.

How can we make our cities livable, inclusive, prosperous and green?

Myanmar: Thoughts Aboard the Yangon Circular Railway Train

Kanthan Shankar's picture

The Yangon Circular Railway is the local commuter rail network in Yangon, Myanmar. In this recording, World Bank Country Manager Kanthan Shankar boards the train on a three-hour ride around the city. "You see a panorama of life unfolding before you and you feel a part of the picture," he says, reflecting on the daily lives of the people in Yangon, "There's a huge opportunity for commerce and private sector growth. Yangon and Myanmar is lucky that it has basic infrastructure in place. It's a matter of rehabilitating these and aiming for a smoother ride to pave the way for commerce,"

 
Watch Kanthan's video blog:

Can Transport Continue to Drive Development in the Face of Carbon and Resource Constraints?

Andreas Kopp's picture

 Shutterstock

Transport drives development: It leads agricultural producers out of subsistence by linking them to markets, enables regions and nations to become more competitive, and makes cities more productive.  But transport is also a big polluter, contributing 20 percent of global energy-related CO2 emissions.  These emissions have grown by 1.7 percent annually since 2000, with 60 percent of the increase in non-OECD countries where economic growth has been accompanied by a surge in demand for individual motor vehicles.

Are attempts to change this trend bad for development? Recent historical experience tells us otherwise. Countries with the lowest emissions per passenger-km are the ‘development miracles’ of recent decades: Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong are all champions in transport fuel-efficiency.

So what would a low-emission future look like? Some see rapid improvements in engine technology as the path to de-carbonization. (Source: IEA) The IPCC, however, finds that technical breakthroughs such as mass affordability of fuel cell cars are unlikely to arrive soon. If so, emission reductions will have to be achieved by a modal change, emphasizing mass transit, railways, and inland water transport rather than individual motorization and aviation.

Social Media at the World Bank: Tell Us What Will It Take to End Poverty

Jim Rosenberg's picture

Read this post in Español, Français, عربي, 中文

What will it take …to improve your life? …for your children to be better off?  …for mothers to be healthy? …for all to get a good education? …to end poverty? More than 1.3 billion people around the globe live on less than $1.25 a day. Fighting poverty in times of crisis may be challenging, but we can’t take our eyes off the most vulnerable.

In this video, World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim asks, “What Will It Take?” Post your questions on Twitter using #whatwillittake, and share your solutions with the hashtag #ittakes.


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